For every action there is a reaction, every cause an effect. The ripple effect of all the actions our government is taking to sure up the economy can be explored for days.
However, what about looking at data and trends from just before the pandemic? Just before the government’s interventions?
Could we glean anything from that? Could it tell us where there’ll be opportunity once “the lights go back on” for the economy and society on a whole?
Luck Equals Preparation Meeting Opportunity
The sad reality is a lot of people are going to get hurt by this pandemic. There will be businesses closed, people who cannot find work and those who lose homes in the end.
It’s unfortunate to think about. It is the reality though, things cannot be good all the time. Without bad there is no good. How would we even know if there wasn’t?
Let me finally get to the point….
2019 Fourth Quarter Foreclosures
As real estate investors we look for properties with a value add opportunity. And this doesn’t just mean how can we as investors get a property as cheap as possible with no regard to how it impacts the other party.
It also means helping those in bad situations with a remedy that is also a win for us. Plays such as subject to, among others. That is for a different article though.
This is about finding those opportunities, because they will be there.
Recently I started looking into what areas already had higher pre-foreclosure and foreclosure rates in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Remember, things were still “all good” in the economy at the time, thus these areas are the most susceptible to having home owners in need and an inventory of bank owned properties hitting the market.
What is the Data Saying?
Some of the research I came across shows many counties in the northeast, particularly in New York and New Jersey are most at risk.
Florida comes in next with many counties in the central and northern parts of the state, such as Flagler and Osceola counties.
There are also some counties in South Carolina high on the list too.
The data I’m looking at was for foreclosures, but also the number of properties under water (loan to value (LTV) of 100 or more).
Here is one report I found showing this info: Attom report – market trends.
There are also several other places to get data like this, such as foreclosuresdaily.com (I have no affiliation with them) that provide rather up to date listing of foreclosure, pre-foreclosure and the like.
The point here is to spend this time getting prepared. There will be opportunity in the market to not only find value add deals, but to help people in tough situations.
That’s a win-win and should be something we look to do when the opportunities arise.
Be sure you are running the numbers on these properties to confirm they are good deals: ScaredyCatGuide Property Calculator